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An international research team is calling on policymakers to direct focus not just on the threats of climate change, but on the increasing number of opportunities for mitigation.

Their study is published today in the IOP Publishing journal Environmental Research Letters.

Lead author Dr Amory Lovins, from Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado, USA, highlighted: “The IPCC’s 2018 Special Report is a stark and bracing reminder of climate threats. We know focussed and urgent action to combat climate change is still essential. But our findings show that both despair and complacency are equally unwarranted.

“We found that, while climate change models have understated potential warming, the models used to guide policymakers have understated the scope for practical, let alone profitable, mitigation against it.”

Despite the recent slowdown in energy savings, recent global decarbonisation has trended on-course with the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below 2 C˚ of pre-industrial levels by end-of-century. Actual decarbonisation has moved at a faster rate than previously assumed, due in part to an under-emphasis in gains from energy efficiency and modern renewable heat production.

The researchers found that recent and dramatic cost reductions in solar, wind, and energy storage have opened new prospects for achieving the goals in the Paris Agreement – including its aspirational 1.5 C˚ target – in ways that are both socially acceptable and economically attractive. Recent progress and future potential for increased efficiency on the consumer’s end has also been overlooked. Co-author Professor Daniel Kammen, from the University of California, Berkeley, USA, emphasized, “What we need now is a renewed and coordinated effort to represent these developments in influential global climate and energy systems models. Doing so is critical to saving trillions of dollars, while achieving stringent climate mitigation outcomes.”

The study recommends new approaches for modelling climate change prospects. It argues for reconsidering reliance on pre-2011 energy data and adapting models to reflect modern energy efficiency options. It also notes the opportunity to apply findings from other disciplines. “Cross-fertilization with different perspectives and schools of thought beyond technocracy can often provide step-changes in enriching analytical insights,” underlined lead author Dr. Lovins.

Professor Kammen, who has been a Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, noted how updated models will allow stakeholders to better anticipate prospects for achieving ambitious climate targets. He also continued to emphasize the urgency of mitigation. “The rich menu of climate-change mitigations—whether driven by business, public policy, or civil society and individual choice—need not wait for these modelling improvements, but all would benefit from them.”

Kammen will speak on the findings of this research at the California Side Event at the Conference of the Parties “COP25” climate conference in Madrid, Spain, December 7 and 8.

Co-author Professor Luis Mundaca, from Lund University, Sweden, concluded: “The evidence is now clear that climate mitigations, particularly on the demand side, well in excess of those traditionally modelled will make sense, make money, and create large co-benefits, chiefly for development, equity, health, and security. Refined modelling therefore need not precede but should evolve in parallel with ambitious policy interventions and aggressive adoption.”

The final version of ‘Recalibrating Climate Prospects’ by Lovins et al (2019 Environ. Res. Lett.) will be freely available online at: (DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab55ab) starting December 2, 2019.

About Environmental Research Letters

Environmental Research Letters covers all environmental science, providing a coherent and integrated approach including research articles, perspectives and review articles.