Working Papers
Picking Winners in Rounds of Elimination
Working Paper (August 2011)
We study the optimal way to select projects or agents in environments where information
arrives in well dened rounds. Examples include academic environments where review
periods are set by policy, aptitude tests such as those given by software developers to
programmers applying for jobs, venture capital protocols where the rounds of funding may
be stopped before the project is complete, and FDA testing, where drugs can be dropped
at well dened junctures. Sequential rounds of elimination reduce the cost of selection, but
also reduce the average quality of surviving projects. We characterize the nature of the
optimal screening process with and without "memory."
Why Are Land Reforms Granting Complete Property Rights Politically Risky? Electoral Outcomes of Mexi
Working Paper (August 2011)
We analyze the impact on voting behavior of strengthening property rights over rural
land. We use the 14 year nationwide rollout of a land certification program in Mexico
(Procede) and match affected communities (ejidos) before and after the change in
property rights with voting outcomes in corresponding electoral sections across six
federal election cycles. We find that, in accordance with the investor class theory,
granting complete property rights induced a conservative shift toward the pro-market
party. This shift was strongest where vested interests created larger expected benefits
from market-oriented policies as opposed to public-transfer policies. We also find that
beneficiaries failed to reciprocate through votes to the benefactor party. We conclude that
engaging in a land reform that grants complete property rights is only politically
advantageous for a right-wing party, thus providing a rationale as to why so many land
reforms done by autocratic governments remain incomplete.
My Studies in International Economics
Working Paper: GSPP12-002 (July 2011)
I first review some of the major influences that shaped my early years. I then relate the subsequent developments in my professional career, including my research orientation, chief publications, collaborative relationships, and longstanding involvement in undergraduate and graduate teaching and supervision.
Who Rents Green? Ecological Responsiveness and Corporate Real Estate
Working Paper: GSPP09-101 (July 2011)
Rental Housing Assistance?
Working Paper: GSPP11-101 (June 2011)
The worst-case housing needs of low-income households arise largely from their high rent
burdens, not from physically inadequate housing. Thus, the programs of housing assistance
for these households initiated in the Great Depression should now be recognized as a
part of the nation’s welfare system, not as an infrastructure investment program. This
paper considers the most important implications of these facts for the design of housing
assistance programs and for the administration of housing subsidies.
How Green is Your Property Portfolio? The Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark
Working Paper: GSPP10-105 (May 2011)
The real estate sector accounts for more than a third of global greenhouse gas
emissions and thus offers great potential for carbon abatement. Energy efficient
and green buildings are rapidly transforming the commercial property sector,
and institutional investors can benefit from that transformation through the
value created by the greening of their real estate holdings. This article develops a
global survey for property portfolios, measuring the environmental performance
of listed property companies and private property funds. Based on the objective
set of environmental survey data, we construct an environmental scorecard – the
Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark. The results reported in this article
suggest that the environmental performance of the global property investment
industry can be substantially improved. For institutional investors, the survey
results and the scorecard metrics benchmark the current environmental
performance of their property portfolio, and show the way to improving it.
The Economics of Green Building
Working Paper: GSPP10-104 (April 2011)
Research on climate change suggests that small improvements in the
“sustainability” of buildings can have large effects on greenhouse gas emissions and on
energy efficiency in the economy. This paper analyzes the economics of “green”
building. First, we analyze a panel of office buildings certified by independent rating
agencies, finding that large recent increases in the supply of green buildings and the
unprecedented volatility in property markets have not significantly affected the relative
returns to green buildings. Second, we analyze a large cross section of office buildings,
demonstrating that economic premiums in rent and asset values of buildings certified for
energy efficiency are substantial. Third, we relate the economic premiums for green
buildings to their relative efficiency in energy use, documenting that the attributes rated
for both thermal efficiency and sustainability contribute to premiums in rents and asset
values. Even among green buildings, increased energy efficiency is fully capitalized into
rents and asset values.
Prompting Microfinance Borrowers to Save: A Behavioral Experiment from Guatemala
Working Paper (April 2011)
We report on an experiment in which new commercial savings products, informed by the
behavioral finance literature, were offered to the microfinance borrowers of Guatemala’s largest
public-sector bank. We find that giving these borrowers the opportunity to plan, and be reminded
of, saving at the time of loan repayment resulted in a doubling of savings deposits relative to the
control, and that proposing a default contribution of 10% of the loan payment caused deposits to
double again. The savings treatments also generate faster pay-down of debt and weakly better
overall repayment performance, suggesting that simultaneous savings and borrowing can be
complementary activities. A theoretical model shows that the simultaneous provision of debt and
commitment savings products helps a greater fraction of the population to eventually escape a
debt-financed equilibrium. Mainstreaming the most successful product tested here would allow the
bank to mobilize savings sufficient to leverage 50% of its short-term loan portfolio.