Master of Public Policy
Master of Public Affairs
Master of Development Practice
Doctoral Program
Global and Executive Programs
Undergraduate Programs
Diversity, Equity, Inclusion
Student Groups
Alumni
Directories
Faculty
Publications
Working Papers
Centers
News Center
Policy Initiatives
For Students
For Employers
Career Events
Employment Statistics
Client-based Projects
About GSPP
Events
Make a Gift
Find a Program
Find a Faculty Member
Find a Center
Estimates of Sub-Saharan Africa Health Care Professional Shortages in 2015
Scheffler, R.M., C.B. Mahoney, B.D. Fulton, M.R. Dal Poz, and A.S. Preker. “Estimates of SubSaharan Africa Health Care Professional Shortages in 2015: What Can Be Done at What Cost.” Health Affairs 6:5 (August 2009): 849-862.
Abstract
This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)—more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.